What Are The Odds

Print Friendly, PDF & Email
Print Friendly, PDF & Email

Having taken several undergraduate and graduate courses in statistics, I can tell you for a certainty that there’s a big difference between odds and probability. Odds, as I am describing them, are the betting chances that something is going to happen. (i.e. The odds that Red Sox will win another world series this year is about 2 to 1,maybe 1 to 1 if Big Papi starts hitting.)

To put this in a Hoboken real estate perspective, the odds that a seller will have their home sold from an open house, is about 100 to 1. This is based on my empirical data over the hundreds of open houses I have held and the number of direct sales of that home from a buyer walking in to an open house.

These are coincidentally about the same odds a buyer has to win a bidding war when they don’t head the professional advice of their agent.

Now on to more important odds that could have a significant impact on Hoboken real estate as a whole. Last week there was an article about a boy who found an error in NASA’s odds that an asteroid would collide with the earth. Great. First we have know it all kids finding errors at The Smithsonian and now a know it all kid finding errors at NASA. BURIED!! at the end of the story was the “fact” that the know it all whipper snapper had reduced the chances of this asteroid hitting the earth and thus ending life as we know it in a horrific and unimaginable way (unless you watch PBS and have seen the computer simulations). The odds dropped from 45,000 to 1 to 450 to 1 that Hoboken and the rest of the world would be destroyed. You are ten times more likely to die by asteroid than to be struck by lightning (assuming you live that long). I hear there are great real estate opportunities on the moon.

Hoboken Condos 2008
Active 530
Under Contract 181
Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed

Speak Your Mind